OpenAI committed $600 billion in compute spending betting that revenue would keep doubling. This week, the Wall Street Journal revealed it missed its own growth targets and its CFO is publicly questioning the plan. Meanwhile, Google just poured $40 billion into Anthropic — whose revenue tripled in four months — and DeepSeek released a frontier-class model under MIT licence at a fraction of the cost. The first mover's advantage is starting to look like the first mover's burden.