[2603.24369] Adaptive decision-making for stochastic service network design

Mathematics > Optimization and Control arXiv:2603.24369 (math) [Submitted on 25 Mar 2026] Title:Adaptive decision-making for stochastic service network design Authors:Javier Duran Micco, Bilge Atasoy View a PDF of the paper titled Adaptive decision-making for stochastic service network design, by Javier Duran Micco and Bilge Atasoy View PDF Abstract:This paper addresses the Service Network Design (SND) problem for a logistics service provider (LSP) operating in a multimodal freight transport network, considering uncertain travel times and limited truck fleet availability. A two-stage optimization approach is proposed, which combines metaheuristics, simulation and machine learning components. This solution framework integrates tactical decisions, such as transport request acceptance and capacity booking for scheduled services, with operational decisions, including dynamic truck allocation, routing, and re-planning in response to disruptions. A simulated annealing (SA) metaheuristic is employed to solve the tactical problem, supported by an adaptive surrogate model trained using a discrete-event simulation model that captures operational complexities and cascading effects of uncertain travel times. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using benchmark instances. First, the SA is tested on a deterministic version of the problem and compared to state-of-the-art results, demonstrating it can improve the solution quality and significantly reduce the computational t...