[2603.24475] Conformalized Transfer Learning for Li-ion Battery State of Health Forecasting under Manufacturing and Usage Variability

Computer Science > Machine Learning arXiv:2603.24475 (cs) [Submitted on 25 Mar 2026] Title:Conformalized Transfer Learning for Li-ion Battery State of Health Forecasting under Manufacturing and Usage Variability Authors:Samuel Filgueira da Silva, Mehmet Fatih Ozkan, Faissal El Idrissi, Marcello Canova View a PDF of the paper titled Conformalized Transfer Learning for Li-ion Battery State of Health Forecasting under Manufacturing and Usage Variability, by Samuel Filgueira da Silva and 3 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Accurate forecasting of state-of-health (SOH) is essential for ensuring safe and reliable operation of lithium-ion cells. However, existing models calibrated on laboratory tests at specific conditions often fail to generalize to new cells that differ due to small manufacturing variations or operate under different conditions. To address this challenge, an uncertainty-aware transfer learning framework is proposed, combining a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model with domain adaptation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and uncertainty quantification through Conformal Prediction (CP). The LSTM model is trained on a virtual battery dataset designed to capture real-world variability in electrode manufacturing and operating conditions. MMD aligns latent feature distributions between simulated and target domains to mitigate domain shift, while CP provides calibrated, distribution-free prediction intervals. This framework improves both the generali...