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[2601.20336] Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis
Summary
This study examines the relationship between cryptocurrency whitepaper claims and actual market behavior, revealing weak predictive power of narratives on market factors.
Why It Matters
Understanding the predictive capacity of whitepaper claims is crucial for investors and researchers in the cryptocurrency space. This study highlights the disconnect between narrative and market performance, informing investment strategies and expectations in a volatile market.
Key Takeaways
- Whitepaper narratives show weak alignment with market behavior.
- The study employs advanced NLP and statistical methods for analysis.
- Specialized tokens exhibit stronger narrative-market correspondence than broader tokens.
- Findings challenge assumptions about the influence of narratives in cryptocurrency markets.
- Implications extend to narrative economics and investor decision-making.
Quantitative Finance > Computational Finance arXiv:2601.20336 (q-fin) [Submitted on 28 Jan 2026 (v1), last revised 14 Feb 2026 (this version, v4)] Title:Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis Authors:Murad Farzulla View a PDF of the paper titled Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis, by Murad Farzulla View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:This study investigates whether cryptocurrency whitepaper narratives align with empirically observed market factor structure. We construct a pipeline combining zero-shot NLP classification of 38 whitepapers across 10 semantic categories with CP tensor decomposition of hourly market data (49 assets, 17,543 timestamps). Using Procrustes rotation and Tucker's congruence coefficient (phi), we find weak alignment between claims and market statistics (phi = 0.246, p = 0.339) and between claims and latent factors (phi = 0.058, p = 0.751). A methodological validation comparison (statistics versus factors, both derived from market data) achieves significance (p < 0.001), confirming the pipeline detects real structure. The null result indicates whitepaper narratives do not meaningfully predict market factor structure, with implications for narrative economics and investor decision-making. Entity-level analysis reveals specialized tokens (XMR, CRV, YFI) show stronger narrative-market correspondence than broad infrastructure tokens. Comments: Subj...