[2603.21419] Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?

Computer Science > Artificial Intelligence arXiv:2603.21419 (cs) [Submitted on 22 Mar 2026] Title:Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact? Authors:Robert Viseur, Nicolas Jullien View a PDF of the paper titled Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?, by Robert Viseur and 1 other authors View PDF Abstract:The rise of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) has led to alarming predictions about its environmental impact. However, these predictions often overlook the fact that the diffusion of innovation is accompanied by the evolution of products and the optimization of their performance, primarily for economic reasons. This can also reduce their environmental impact. By analyzing the GAI ecosystem using the classic A-U innovation diffusion model, we can forecast this industry's structure and how its environmental impact will evolve. While GAI will never be green, its impact may not be as problematic as is sometimes claimed. However, this depends on which business model becomes dominant. Subjects: Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) Cite as: arXiv:2603.21419 [cs.AI]   (or arXiv:2603.21419v1 [cs.AI] for this version)   https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.21419 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) Submission history From: Robert Viseur [view email] [v1] Sun, 22 Mar 2026 22:00:18 UTC (125 KB) Full-text link...